Riyasat IAS Mentorship Team
Updated 19 Jul 2026
2 min read
El Niño and the Monsoon Crisis in India
GS PAPER I & III — Geography, Agriculture
Why in News? The India Meteorological Department has recorded the fifth-lowest June rainfall since 1901 — roughly 40 percent below normal — as an El Niño event weakens the South-West Monsoon. July rainfall is also forecast to stay below the normal range, deepening concerns over agriculture and water availability.
Key Facts for Prelims June 2026 rainfall: 99.5 mm — lowest since 2014, ~40% below normal.Kharif sown area down by up to 22% year-on-year.Reservoir storage 25% lower than June 2025 (per Central Water Commission).July rainfall forecast: below 94% of the normal range.El Niño = abnormal warming of central/eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature, disrupting the Walker Circulation.6 out of 10 El Niño years bring a weaker Indian monsoon.This year flagged as a ‘Super El Niño’; IOD forecast to stay ‘neutral’, offering no cushioning effect.M.S. Swaminathan Committee recommends drought-tolerant crops such as millets.
Quick-Reference Data Table
Indicator
Figure
June 2026 rainfall recorded
99.5 mm (lowest since 2014)
Deficiency from normal
~40%
Kharif sown area decline (YoY)
Up to 22%
Reservoir storage vs June 2025
25% lower (per CWC)
July rainfall forecast
Below 94% of normal (deficient)
UPSC Note — Prelims Angle Expect statement-based MCQs from El Niño and the Monsoon Crisis in India testing numbers, scheme names, ratios and committee recommendations. Revise the data table above rather than the narrative — Prelims rewards precision on figures.
Prelims MCQ Practice With reference to the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño, consider the following statements: 1. During an El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific rise above normal, which tends to weaken the Indian monsoon. 2. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can partly or fully offset the adverse impact of El Niño on the monsoon. 3. Under a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, the negative impact of El Niño on the Indian monsoon becomes more pronounced. How many of the statements given above are correct? (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) All three (d) None Answer: (c) All three statements are accurate descriptions of how El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole interact to influence the strength of the South-West Monsoon.
