Climate Change and Declining Milk Production in India
GS PAPER III — Agriculture, Environment & Economy
| Why in News? A study published in Scientific Reports, using data spanning 2004 to 2019, has found that climate change and rising heat stress are sharply cutting milk productivity across India, especially in the Trans-Gangetic Plain and high-output states like Haryana. The Lancet has separately projected that India’s milk production could fall by as much as 25 percent by 2085 due to intensifying thermal stress. |
How Heat Stress Cuts Milk Output
When temperatures cross 38°C and humidity exceeds 70 percent — typical of July and August — milch animals experience extreme heat stress. To maintain internal body temperature, animals redirect energy from milk production toward panting, sweating, and reduced physical activity, cutting output by 20 to 30 percent.
Rising stress also elevates cortisol levels in animals, which disrupts the natural hormonal process behind milk let-down.
Why Some Breeds Suffer More Than Others
Buffaloes, with darker skin, less body hair, and fewer sweat glands, are especially vulnerable to solar radiation — a unit rise in evapotranspiration has been linked to roughly a 1.4 litre drop in daily milk yield per buffalo.
Cross-bred cows also see sharp productivity declines during heatwaves, while indigenous breeds such as Sahiwal and Hariyana show only negligible impact — a difference rooted in genetics and physiology rather than management practices alone.
A Problem That Spreads Through the Whole System
Rising surface temperature does not just stress individual animals — it damages the entire livestock ecosystem through two linked channels: deteriorating fodder quantity, quality, and seasonal availability, and a weakened animal immune system that raises disease and pathogen risk.
The economic toll is already substantial: India currently loses about 3.2 million tonnes of milk annually, worth roughly ₹2,661 crore, a figure projected to rise to 15 million tonnes by 2050 if current trends continue.
What Makes Indigenous Breeds More Resilient
Loose skin, efficient evaporative cooling, and lower metabolic heat production give indigenous breeds a physical edge, while their stronger resistance to local parasites and pathogens helps preserve immunity under heat stress.
The National Bureau of Animal Genetic Resources has identified specific heat-shock proteins and favourable coat traits in these breeds, offering a genetic basis for future breeding strategies.
Climate Stress on India’s Dairy Sector — Key Numbers
| Indicator | Figure |
| Milk production decline in extreme heat stress | 20–30% |
| Milk yield drop per unit rise in evapotranspiration (buffalo) | ~1.4 litres/day |
| Current annual milk loss from climate stress | 3.2 million tonnes (~₹2,661 crore) |
| Projected annual loss by 2050 | 15 million tonnes |
| Projected national milk production decline by 2085 (The Lancet) | Up to 25% |
Way Forward
- Build a regional early-warning system integrating evapotranspiration and Temperature-Humidity Index data with local weather forecasts.
- Scale up traditional, low-cost adaptations already used in Haryana — wallowing ponds for buffaloes, agro-forestry-based shed cooling, and sprinklers or foggers.
- Prioritise conservation and thermal-tolerant breeding programmes for indigenous breeds such as Sahiwal.
- Channel credit, technical awareness, and institutional support to the 8 crore small and marginal dairy farmers who produce 85 percent of India’s milk, through a dedicated National Climate-Smart Dairy Strategy.
Animal husbandry is not merely an economic activity in India — it underwrites the nutritional security of rural society. Sustaining India’s leadership in global milk production will depend on combining digital early-warning tools, indigenous genetic conservation, and ground-level adaptation.
| UPSC Note — GS Linkage & Exam Angle This is a strong GS III topic connecting climate change, agriculture, and livelihood security — useful for both standalone questions and value addition in broader climate-impact answers. The Sahiwal/indigenous-breed resilience angle is a good example to cite when discussing genetic resources and climate adaptation. |
| Mains Practice Question “Climate change is creating a crisis of both ‘livelihood and nutrition’ before India’s rural dairy sector.” In light of this statement, discuss the importance of traditional indigenous livestock management systems and the need for ‘climate-smart dairy’ policies. (250 words, 15 marks) |
| Prelims MCQ Practice With reference to the impact of climate change on India’s dairy sector, consider the following statements: 1. Indigenous cattle breeds such as Sahiwal show negligible productivity decline during heatwaves compared to cross-bred cows. 2. Buffaloes are generally less sensitive to heat stress than cross-bred cows due to their darker skin. 3. India’s annual milk loss due to climate stress is currently estimated at around 3.2 million tonnes. Which of the statements given above is/are correct? (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3 Answer: (c) Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Statement 2 is incorrect — buffaloes are more, not less, sensitive to heat stress because their darker skin, sparse body hair, and limited sweat glands make them highly vulnerable to solar radiation. |
