The global war on terror, an empowered Iran

GS  II – International Relations

• Global war on terror: While the Middle East continues to be embroiled in conflict, it is worth noting that the Iran of today was largely forged by the end product of an attempt by forces led by US Hegemony put into effect as a global war on Terrorism.
• Strategic containment pre-2001: Before 2001, Iran was strategically contained by competing aspirations from two enemy regimes — the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
• Hostile neighbours removed: Iran gets rid of its most deadly neighbours (Iraq and Afghanistan) through U.S. invasions, which resulted in the fall of both administrations.
• More supportive governments: Both countries elected new, friendlier authorities.
•  Iraq Transformation : In Iraq, the toppling of Sunni rule resulted in a Shia-dominated government closely aligned with Iran, turning an enemy into an ally.
•  Rising power in Iraq: Analysts concluded that Iran now outstripped the U.S. as the most influential player within Iraq and thus greatly strengthened its strategic position.

Sectarianism was the fuel

•   Sectarian conflicts: Invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in an influx of the chaos-tradition into the region, which further aggravated sectarian conflicts based on Shia-Sunni divisions.
• Emergence of terrorist groups: Such events created a fertile environment for the birth of terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda in Iraq, and later the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
• Regional polarisation: Iran bolstered Shia militias in Iraq while Saudi Arabia supported Sunni extremists.
•   Proxy warfare: This type of sub-conventional proxy war made Iran a regional power broker instead of accomplishing the larger objective for the U.S. which, at that time, was isolating Iran.

o   The ideological anti-Shia nature of ISIS made it an unprecedented threat to Iran.

•    Iran’s role as an anti-ISIS actor: This forced Iran to play a leading role within the anti-ISIS coalition by sending military advisers and mobilising troops across the region.

o   At the same time, focusing on power vacuum from civil wars, Iran has used the crisis to strengthen its position as a key counter-terrorism player by extending influence at Syria and Iraq.

•  Missed U.S.-Iran dialogue: The emergence of a common enemy provided a slim opening for a dialogue with the U.S. but there was no meeting of minds, since by President George W. Bush’s own declaration to Congress in his 2002 State of the Union address, Iran was classified in an ‘Axis of Evil’ with Iraq and North Korea, all pursuing weapons of mass destruction and supporting terrorism.

The role played by the ‘Axis of Resistance’

•   Axis Nature: What was significant from the Iranian perspective was the Character of the (Axis) — a political, military and social network linking Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. It was a ‘ring of fire’ around Israel: It was supposed to protect Iran’s ‘front’, partly acting as forward defence.
• Buffer zones: Iran has acquired numerous buffer zones in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen via key Axis entities such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias.
• Jewish Fatwa Fund: The Axis played a role in the creation of the “Shia Crescent,” which is an arc of Iranian influence that stretches from Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon.
•  VI. International Legitimacy: Iran promoted its military intervention in Iraq and Syria for this purpose, garnering international legitimacy.
• Consolidation of groups: Groups like Hezbollah became militarily experienced and politically established.

o   The Houthis graduated from being a self-serving resistance group within Yemen to an established political insurgent group.

Iran’s military strategy and asymmetric advantage

•  Role of IRGC: Iran concentrated mainly on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which controls Iran’s strategic assets and conducts sub-conventional warfare activities including control of proxies.
•   Low Conventional focus : In contrast compared to the October 2023 destruction of Iranian proxies, during that time the far more significant old-fashioned armed service in Iran received significantly less have attention.
• Power vacuums: The 2011 U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Arab Spring left leaders in the region uneasy about their political future, leaving a vacuum to fill that the Islamic Republic was fairly well-equipped to exploit.
•  Investment in the Axis : Iran invested heavily in the Axis—they wanted an asymmetric edge against 2 of its most important enemies and face it, matching U.S. or Israeli conventional military metrics would be a losing battle for Tehran.
•    Impact of “Forever Wars”: The West Asia “Forever Wars” drained American resources and attention, with Iran free from containment to further its schemes while hardening its approach against Israel.
•    ISIS and Iran: During the battle against ISIS, however, Iran became one of the first military supporters of the Iraqi government and one of its most important; here the rise of ISIS paradoxically favored Iran.
• Quds Force in Iraq: Iran dispatched its Quds Force to Baghdad, effectively taking control of Iraq’s security apparatus on how to defend itself.
• Syria and Assad: Defending the regime of Assad in Syria reinforced Iran’s one major state ally, and stabilized Iran’s logistical routes for support to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The transformation of Iran

•   Contained state to regional power: The global war on terror was the driving force behind Iran’s transition from a contained actor in the Gulf region to its current status as a regional power.
•  The law of unintended consequences: U.S. actions removed hostile regimes and created power vacuums, causing outcomes diametrically opposed to their stated goals (and unfortunately aiding and abetting Iran’s alliance network).
•   Regional power projection : On the one hand, you had the global war on terror, which allowed Tehran to project power in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria andYemen.
•   Growing role of Iran: This thus solidified the position of Iran as a major regional broker with repercussions for West Asian geopolitics for decades.
•   The Axis: Iran reaped the rewards of these trends, and increasingly invested in the Axis — but it did so under the banner of nationalism rather than religion.

Conclusion:

Iran’s current resilience and push back against the US-Israeli counter offensive in West Asia can be considered a delayed spillover effect of the bi-polar world order that has emerged out of the global war on terror which coalesced around 2001.

Mains Question

Q. The US-led global war on terror, aimed at destroying radical Islamic forces that came up in the wake of the US occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, unwittingly threatened its interests in West Asia by opening up opportunities for Iran to emerge as a regional power. Analyze the reasons for unlock of powers with Iran and what does it mean to regional geopolitics?